Articulated Butchery of Democracy; Risks and Scenarios for 2019 Nigerian Election

There is a growing consensus that the real battle in the coming presidential election in Nigeria will be between Buhari (APC) and Atiku (PDP). Although international risk advisory, Eurasia Group believes the result could end up being inconclusive necessitating a rerun


It is widely alleged that both Buhari and Atiku are within current political class or groupings and when compared to a lot the new presidential aspirants with the populace including the business elites becoming more and more disenchanted with old ways of doing things.


If it is indeed true that 22.3m students, 13.6m farmers and 11.8m housewives are registered to vote in the next election, could there is be a possibility of a new coalition from the emerging political players such as Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu, Oby Ezekwesili and Omoyele Sowore?

 Are you prepared for any or all of the 2019 Nigerian elections scenarios?

  • Can this coalition garner significant interest by speaking to the grievances of the groups identified above to gather enough votes that creates the third way or one that pushes the election to be inconclusive?

Or is it possible for this coalition, if it indeed possible or feasible, to join forces with either Buhari or Atiku?

  • Can Buhari or Atiku boost their popularity and gain the sorely needed credibility of the disenchanted Nigerians by co-opting the key members of the coalition and actually form a government in waiting with clearly delineated portfolios?

Or will the military rear its now uncommon intrusion into the polity of the largest nation in Africa and the most strategically important to the major players in world i.e. USA, China, France, United Kingdom and Russia?


Read the five scenarios that will play out in the 2019 elections. Download for full paper here 

Are you prepared for any or all the scenarios?

Conrad Clark Risk Advisory can assist with the assessment of your readiness to deal with the coming political risks and scenarios in the upcoming elections including analysis and solutions at the geopolitical and state levels.

Articulated Butchery of Democracy

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  • Joachim Adenusi

    Managing Director

    Joachim is a former Director of the Institute of Risk Management (IRM). He is a chartered insurer (ACII) & a certified trainer for the CII and IRM.

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    Ayoola has over twenty years’ extensive experience in finance, risk, legal, strategy development, management consulting, change and project management.

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